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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Retail sales closed Q3 on an unexpectedly strong note, with the headline advance figure up 0.7% (vs 0.3% expected, 0.8% prior), ex-auto/gas up 0.6% (vs 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior), and the GDP-input control group up 0.6% (vs 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior).
- Notably all of August's major categories were revised up (headline 0.2pp, ex-auto 0.3pp, ex-auto/gas and control group each +0.1pp).
- 5 retail sales sub-categories failed to rise in August (electronics/ appliance stores, building materials, clothing contracted; furniture and sporting goods stores were flat).
- Apart from that though, gains were solid, led by miscellaneous retailers (+3.0%), nonstore retailers (+1.1%), motor vehicle dealers (+1.0%), and gasoline stations (+0.9%). Ex-gas stations, retail sales were +0.7% M/M, the highest since May.
- The nominal retail sales beat is made slightly more impressive given headline CPI faded in September vs August somewhat on a M/M basis (0.4% vs 0.6%, in part on a slowdown in gas price inflation to 2.1% from 10.6%).
- On a CPI-deflated basis, real retail sales were positive Y/Y for the first time since January, albeit barely at +0.1% Y/Y; nominal was up 3.8% (CPI was 3.7%).
- While the retail sales series remains choppy on a M/M basis, this is another solid report that betrays little sign of consumer weakness to end Q3 that had been suggested by BEA credit card spending data for example.
Source: BLS, Census Bureau, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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