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ITALY DATA: Retail Sales Grow 0.3% 3m/3m For Third Consecutive Month

ITALY DATA
CEEMEAEurozoneData BulletItalyBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Italian retail sales fell on a nominal and real basis in November, though real 3m/3m sales grew 0.3% for the third consecutive month. This suggests Italian household consumption is on track for another quarter of sequential growth in Q4. Household consumption contributed 0.8pp to quarterly GDP growth in Q3 (overall Q/Q GDP growth was flat overall). In Q4 2024 and through to Q2 2026, analysts expect consumption growth to grow around 1.0% Y/Y (vs 0.4% in Q3). 

  • Positive real wage growth is likely an important driver here: Headline inflation rates were 1.5% Y/Y or below throughout 2024, while compensation per employee growth was around 4.0%.
  • In November, both food and non-food retail sales growth was positive on a 3m/3m real basis. The latter reached its highest rate since February 2024.
  • On an annual basis, nominal sales rose 1.1% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior). Real sales instead fell 0.2% (vs 1.5% growth prior).

 

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Italian retail sales fell on a nominal and real basis in November, though real 3m/3m sales grew 0.3% for the third consecutive month. This suggests Italian household consumption is on track for another quarter of sequential growth in Q4. Household consumption contributed 0.8pp to quarterly GDP growth in Q3 (overall Q/Q GDP growth was flat overall). In Q4 2024 and through to Q2 2026, analysts expect consumption growth to grow around 1.0% Y/Y (vs 0.4% in Q3). 

  • Positive real wage growth is likely an important driver here: Headline inflation rates were 1.5% Y/Y or below throughout 2024, while compensation per employee growth was around 4.0%.
  • In November, both food and non-food retail sales growth was positive on a 3m/3m real basis. The latter reached its highest rate since February 2024.
  • On an annual basis, nominal sales rose 1.1% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior). Real sales instead fell 0.2% (vs 1.5% growth prior).

 

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