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Retail Sales Miss, April Down-Revisions Outshines In-Line CPI

US TSYS
  • Treasuries remain well bid after the bell, not far off this morning's post-Retail Sales (and down-revisions to prior release) and CPI data highs. While 10Y Tsy yield fell to 4.3361% this morning - the lowest level since of prior to the "hot" CPI on April 10, S&P Eminis are back at levels not seen since April 1 this morning.
  • Supercore CPI at a still hot but broadly as expected 0.42% M/M (and with its large 0.19pp contribution from vehicle insurance that isn’t reflected in PCE).
  • US retail sales had their poorest performance in 3 months in April, with weakness evident across the board, partially reversing March's strong gains. Overall retail sales were flat (+0.4% expected), pulling back from +0.6% in March, while ex-auto/gas sales were -0.1% (+0.2% expected) vs +0.7% in March. Each represented the poorest outturn in 3 months.
  • In-turn, short end rate cut pricing now projects two 25bp rate cuts by year end (Sep & Dec).
  • Trying to keep things in perspective, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Federal Reserve should keep monetary policy on hold for now given uncertainty about how tight policy actually is and against a backdrop of inflation that has fallen from its peaks but is still too high.
  • Look ahead to Thursday's data calendar: Weekly Claims, Build Permits and more Fed Speak.
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