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EUROZONE DATA: Retail Sales M/M Weaker Expected

EUROZONE DATA
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Eurozone retail trade volumes printed below consensus at -0.5% M/M in October (vs -0.3% consensus, 0.5% prior) - the weakest sequential reading since June. On an annual basis, volume of retail trade rose 1.9% Y/Y (vs 1.7% consensus, 3.0% revised prior from 2.9%). There were mild upward revisions but we believe most of the difference in the miss for the M/M and beat for the Y/Y is down to different analyst estimates (18 responses for M/M vs 10 for Y/Y). 

  • The monthly weakness was driven by Non-Food Products (Ex Fuel) falling 0.9% M/M (vs a rise of 1.3% in September) - the first sequential fall since June. Automotive fuel sales also fell 0.3% M/M (vs a steeper fall of 0.6% in September).
  • Food, drinks and tobacco sales rose marginally by 0.1% M/M (vs -0.7% M/M prior).
  • From the five largest eurozone members, Germany printed a significant decline in sales of 1.4% M/M - the first fall since June but admittedly after three strong months - and the Netherlands also saw sales volumes decline 0.3% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). Spain and France both reported flat sales in October with Italy expected to be released tomorrow. 
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Eurozone retail trade volumes printed below consensus at -0.5% M/M in October (vs -0.3% consensus, 0.5% prior) - the weakest sequential reading since June. On an annual basis, volume of retail trade rose 1.9% Y/Y (vs 1.7% consensus, 3.0% revised prior from 2.9%). There were mild upward revisions but we believe most of the difference in the miss for the M/M and beat for the Y/Y is down to different analyst estimates (18 responses for M/M vs 10 for Y/Y). 

  • The monthly weakness was driven by Non-Food Products (Ex Fuel) falling 0.9% M/M (vs a rise of 1.3% in September) - the first sequential fall since June. Automotive fuel sales also fell 0.3% M/M (vs a steeper fall of 0.6% in September).
  • Food, drinks and tobacco sales rose marginally by 0.1% M/M (vs -0.7% M/M prior).
  • From the five largest eurozone members, Germany printed a significant decline in sales of 1.4% M/M - the first fall since June but admittedly after three strong months - and the Netherlands also saw sales volumes decline 0.3% M/M (vs -0.1% prior). Spain and France both reported flat sales in October with Italy expected to be released tomorrow.