Retail Sales Preview: Slowdown Seen Within Wide Forecast Ranges

Apr retail sales (0830ET) headline seen slowing to +1.0% M/M (+9.8% prior), with ex-auto/gas +0.3%(+8.2% prior) and control group -0.2% (+6.9% prior).

• As with PPI yesterday, the "actual" expectation for Retail Sales growth may be higher than indicated by the BBG survey due to the shock from the April CPI reading.
• Wrightson ICAP for instance wrote this morning that they have bumped their core sales forecast (ex-autos and gas) projection to 1.1% from 0.7% and headline to 1.7% from 1.4% (going from above consensus to well-above consensus) as they see higher prices playing a role in boosting nominal sales totals in some categories.
• The control group median forecast appears to have risen from -0.4% to -0.2% this morning with late entries by both Wrightson ICAP and Citi (+0.2%).
• Note also very wide ranges from the BBG survey: for core for example, the range is -1.7% to +4.2%.
• MNI's Reality Check out yesterday cited retail industry experts saying that retail sales growth likely slowed over March as reopenings and vaccinations tapered, although more fiscal relief and tax refunds mean higher prices for goods won't be a drag on spending.