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Retail sales unlikely to alter MPC Nov decision but early warning signs

UK DATA
  • Retail sales will make a -0.04% contribution to Q3 GDP (after falling -0.8%Q/Q), but are unlikely to make a significant contribution to the MPC's November decision.
  • However, looking at the details there are some warning signs here. Big ticket items like furniture, watches, jewellery are all noted by the ONS as being weak here.
  • Some of these big ticket items were noted in the September inflation report as having seen larger price falls too, indicating that despite price cuts, volumes were still weak.
  • GBPUSD is currently trading around its intraday lows of 1.2112.
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