Retail Sales Weaker in April But Projected to Pick Up

German retail sales (excl. cars) were weaker in April, declining by 1.2% M/M (real and seasonally- / calendar-adjusted; vs -0.3% cons; +2.6% prior, revised from +1.8%) and -0.6% Y/Y (calendar adjusted; vs +1.0% prior, revised from +0.3%).

• The upward revisions mean that the miss vs consensus was less severe than it seems on first sight.
• Food sales were -2.2% M/M, non-food sales -0.8%. April's data thus appears to be driven by a partial reversal of March's strong food turnover (+3.9% M/M), which was likely underpinned by the early Easter holiday this year.
• Looking into the details of the main non-food categories, internet and mail order sales inclined 2.9% M/M, while elsewhere, sales broadly declined vs March.
• Specifically, "sport equipment, publishing products, and toys" printed at -1.4% M/M (vs 2.8% prior), "furniture, Hi-Fi, and IT equipment" printed -2.0% M/M (vs 1.9% prior), and fuel sales came in at -3.6% M/M (vs +1.2% prior).
• The data suggests an overall rather weak start into Q2 for German consumer spending, which overall declined by 0.4% Q/Q (SA) in Q1 (vs +0.4% Q4) and contributed a negative 0.2pp to quarterly real GDP growth.
• Looking ahead, consumer spending is projected to pick up during the remainder of 2024, likely underpinnded by strong Q1 real wage gains, with MNI's collation of sellside analysts standing at +0.6% Y/Y for Q2 and +0.9% Y/Y for Q3/4. These estimates were mostly upwardly revised during the last month.

MNI, Destatis