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Retains Firm Tone Post ECB But $1.2160 Provides Upside Hurdle Into Europe

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Thursday's ECB meeting seen less dovish than had been expected, monetary policy changes were as widely anticipated , down played risks with only a mild mention of EUR strength.
  • The announcement, along with a EU Budget agreement acted to boost EUR strength.
  • EUR/USD rallied to $1.2159 before momentum faded and rate dropped back to $1.2111 through the 1600GMT fix. Demand emerged into the dip which allowed rate to nudge back to $1.2145 ahead of the close.
  • The USD came under fresh pressure in Asia which took EUR/USD back up to retest Thursday's high but met stiff resistance at $1.2160 which capped on several challenges.
  • Resistance noted between $1.2160/66 ahead of the recently posted YTD high at $1.2178(Dec04). A break here exposes $1.2200 ahead of $1.2220. Support $1.2140/35, stronger into $1.2100.
  • Germany final CPI at 0700GMT. BuBa publishes its semi-annual economic forecasts at 0730GMT. European Council meeting continues 0900GMT, Lagarde attends but not due to speak.
  • ECB speakers include Holzmann 0900GMT, Centeno 1030GMT, de Cos 1500GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD firmer today and trading close to Thursday's high. A bullish outlook remains intact. This follows the Dec 1 clearance of the of 1.2011, Sep 1 high that confirmed a resumption of the uptrend since Mar 23. The pair has also cleared 1.2102, 76.4% of the entire 2018-20 down leg reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies continue to point north. The focus is on 1.2184 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at 1.2059.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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