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Reuters Poll Shows Analysts Expect Home Prices To Rise Further

AUSTRALIA

On Friday August CoreLogic home prices and July housing finance data are released. House prices began to rise again in March this year and in July were 5.2% above the February trough. Over half of the 2022 correction has now been unwound. The RBA has cited rising property prices as an upside risk to its consumption outlook through the wealth effect.

  • A Reuters survey of 14 analysts found that home prices are expected to rise 4.4% in 2023 up from flat in the June poll. Earlier this year they had expected a correction of 16%, which was less than 10% in the end. They expect prices to rise 5% in 2024 up from 4.5% in the previous survey.
  • Prices have been driven higher by record growth in the working age population at a time of housing stock shortages despite 400bp of rate hikes. July building approvals fell again indicating that the situation is not about to improve but deteriorating housing affordability is likely to keep a lid on price increases.
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