Reuters Reports Advisers Likely To Suggest 4.5-5.5% 2024 Growth Target

MNI (Australia) - Reuters spoke to the seven advisers who will be providing advice at December’s annual Central Economic Work Conference. Apparently, five will suggest at 5% growth target, with one at 4.5% and another 5-5.5%. But they believe that more fiscal stimulus will be needed to achieve these targets, as this year was supported by positive pandemic-related base effects. The target may be agreed in December but is unlikely to be announced until March.

• Government economist Yu said to Reuters “We need to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand”. He believes that infrastructure investment needs to be boosted as private capex has not yet recovered. He also proposes a budget deficit of 4% of GDP.
• An anonymous adviser said that fiscal stimulus is being increased to help achieve the “difficult” 2024 target. While another one said that without reform, growth will need stimulus.
• Monetary policy is likely to play less of a stimulatory role so as not to pressure the yuan.