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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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MNI BRIEF: Aussie Q3 GDP Prints At 0.3% Q/Q
Revised Budget Seen Bolstering Norges' Need for Hikes
- The expansive nature of this morning's budget revision is seen bolstering the need for further hikes from the Norges Bank in the coming months - particularly the larger non-oil budget deficit. The deficit has been revised higher to 3.0% of pension fund capital - greater than the Norges Bank assumption of 2.8%, and therefore should add upside pressure to rate path projections going forward.
- The March MPR saw rates peaking at 3.60% in Q4, but broad NOK weakness and stubborn core CPI could tilt this closer to 4.00% at June's forecasting round. Most sell-side analysts see today's budget release bolstering the case for more hikes: e.g. DNB affirm their forecast for 4% peak in Sept.
- The specific implications for NB FX selling/buying remain to be seen, but the larger deficit should equate to a slower pace of CB NOK sales on behalf of the government - cementing the market assumption for FX purchases to slow (and possibly reverse) in the coming months.
- EUR/NOK holds just above 11.4556 support (50-dma), but a break below would open further corrective activity toward 11.3582 and below. Any NOK rally would have to run further to meet the Norges Bank's FX expectations from March: The Q2 I-44 FX rate average so far is 121.46, over 1.5% off the 119.50 assumption.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.