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SOUTH KOREA: Revised GDP in Line with Expectations for Fourth Quarter. 

SOUTH KOREA
  • After yesterday’s slew of weak data, today’s revised GDP release will come as somewhat of a relief to authorities.
  • The fourth quarter provisional GDP print of +1.2% was in line with expectations with manufacturing +2.2% y/y, electricity, gas and water supply -1% y/y, construction -6.2% y/y and services +1.5% y/y
  • The fourth quarter q/q result of +0.1% was in line with estimates with manufacturing +0.2% q/q, electricity, gas and water supply -5.8% q/q, construction -4.1% q/q and services +0.4% q/q.
  • The full year GDP Annual release of +2.0% y/y for 2024, missed the BOK’s full year forecast of +2.2%.
  • GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly revised downward from 1.9% to 1.5%.
  • The BOK cut rates at its last meeting indicating that they will ease further, but are likely to remain cautious in their approach.
  • Given GDP was in line with expectations and with the Won remains one of the worst performers in the region since the last BOK, today’s release possibly is sufficient to provide the BOK time to pause at its next meeting  on April 17. 
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  • After yesterday’s slew of weak data, today’s revised GDP release will come as somewhat of a relief to authorities.
  • The fourth quarter provisional GDP print of +1.2% was in line with expectations with manufacturing +2.2% y/y, electricity, gas and water supply -1% y/y, construction -6.2% y/y and services +1.5% y/y
  • The fourth quarter q/q result of +0.1% was in line with estimates with manufacturing +0.2% q/q, electricity, gas and water supply -5.8% q/q, construction -4.1% q/q and services +0.4% q/q.
  • The full year GDP Annual release of +2.0% y/y for 2024, missed the BOK’s full year forecast of +2.2%.
  • GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly revised downward from 1.9% to 1.5%.
  • The BOK cut rates at its last meeting indicating that they will ease further, but are likely to remain cautious in their approach.
  • Given GDP was in line with expectations and with the Won remains one of the worst performers in the region since the last BOK, today’s release possibly is sufficient to provide the BOK time to pause at its next meeting  on April 17.