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Revisiting Early Monday Levels After Weak Philly Fed Mfg Index

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are see-sawing near session highs, holding to a relatively narrow range since this morning's weaker than expected Philly Fed MFG index at -31.3 (-19.3 est). At odds with the surprise bounce in the (far more volatile) Empire State survey on Monday (10.8 reported vs. -18.0 ext).
  • Price components stood out on the weak side: current prices received falling from 7.9 to -3.3 saw the first negative since the pandemic and aside from -0.2 in Jun'19 were last seen in 2016.
  • Treasury futures gapped higher post data, Jun'23 10Y tapped 114-26 high (+20), back near early Monday levels. Initial firm resistance is at 114-30, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average is required to ease the current bearish threat.
  • The 10Y contract remains in a short-term downtrend however after Wednesday’s move lower marked an extension of the pullback from 117-01+, Mar 24 high. The contract has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and yesterday pierced 114-00. This signals scope for weakness to 113-23, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester on Thursday endorsed a May interest rate increase and said she's prepared to adjust her views on how much higher and for how much longer rates will need to rise based on changing economic and banking conditions.
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