US
In a press release sent to media on 21 Aug, the campaign of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he is set to deliver an address to the nation at 1400ET (1900BST, 2000CET) on Friday 23 Aug. It is widely expected that Kennedy will announce his withdrawal from the race and endorse Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump.
- This follows comments on 20 Aug from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, saying that the ticket is contemplating offering their backing to Trump. Hours later, Trump said that he would welcome their support.
- At points in the campaign, when President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, Kennedy polled as high as 24% in nationwide surveys. This threatened to significantly alter the electoral calculus for both Democrats and Republicans in winning the required 270 electoral college votes to take the White House.
- Since Vice President Kamala Harris' elevation to become Democratic nominee, a proportion of 'double-haters' (voters unenthused by both the Biden and Trump tickets) have swung behind Harris, narrowing the contest from leaning towards Trump to a dead heat.
- As such, Kennedy's withdrawal and his potential endorsement of the GOP nominee is seen as a likely boost to the Trump campaign.
- There is speculation that Trump could even appear alongside Kennedy on the stage in Phoenix, AZ given that the former president is set to hold a campaign event in nearby Glendale on the same day.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning President Candidate, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
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