RFK Withdrawal Could Boost Trump In Swing States

The implied probability of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrawing from the presidential race has spiked on comments from running mate Nicole Shanahan appearing to flirt with a Trump endorsement.

• According to Polymarket, the implied probability of RFK withdrawing before November is currently 83%. The implied probability of RFK endorsing Trump is a similar 78%.
• Shanahan said: “There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party… Or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump.”
• Semafor notes that Trump quickly embraced the idea, telling CNN in Michigan that he could find a role for Kennedy in a second administration. “He’s a brilliant guy. He’s a very smart guy. I’ve known him for a very long time.”
• A prevailing view amongst analysts is that RFK’s withdrawal is likely to benefit Trump as he has tended to perform better in polls without third-party candidates included. The New York Times national polling average shows that Harris' lead over Trump is reduced from +2 to +1 if RFK is included on the ballot. However, key swing states - including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - show a slight boost for Trump with RFK off the ballot.
• Democrat operative Lis Smith said: “From the beginning of this race, we’ve said that RFK Jr. is nothing more than a spoiler for Donald Trump. We’re glad that his running mate is finally admitting it.”