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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ASIA
Our estimate of non-Japan Asian inflation saw an increase in August to 2.2% y/y from 2% as all countries except India saw a rise in headline driven by higher rice and fuel prices. This is reflected in core being stable to down across the region with the aggregate steady at 1.4% and down 0.1pp to 3% excluding China. Central banks will be monitoring for second round effects but for now will be pleased that core continues to moderate. Some governments have already introduced policies to reduce the impact of higher oil prices at the pump.
Asian core CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/IMF/Refinitiv
- Non-Japan Asian ex China CPI inflation moderated to 4.8% from 4.9% in August due to the drop in India’s inflation to 6.8% from 7.4%. The series assumes that inflation in HK, Malaysia and Singapore is constant at the July rates as the data has not yet been released.
- Rice prices have become a problem for the region since India decided to ban exports of non-basmati varieties to bring food price inflation down domestically. Processed rice prices have risen 19.1% since the June trough and rose 8.6% in August alone. In September to date they are up another 5.8% and so are likely to add to the food CPI again after rising in many Asian countries in August.
- Crude oil prices can lead Asian inflation and Brent rose 6.3% in August and the September average is up a further 7.3%. The impact was felt in the August Asian CPIs and is likely, along with rice prices, to push inflation higher again in September.
Non-Japan Asia CPI y/y% vs rice & oil prices
Source: MNI - Market News/IMF/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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