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Richer After CPI Monthly Miss

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGB richened as much as 7bp after May’s CPI Monthly data misses, printing 5.6% y/y versus expectations of 6.1%. April’s reading was 6.8% y/y. Futures have subsequently reversed a portion of those gains to be 3-4bp richer post-data (YM +7.0 XM +5.5).

  • Cash ACGBs are 4bp richer after the data to be 5-7bp richer on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is -8bp on the day at +12bp.
  • Swap rates are 7-9bp richer on the day with EFPs tighter.
  • The bills strip bull steepens with pricing +7 to +11.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing shunts 3-8bp softer for meetings beyond July after the CPI data. The market now attaches a 31% chance of a 25bp hike in July.
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