MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Richer Ahead Of RBA Gov Bullock’s Speech & Q3 CPI Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +9.5) are richer and at Sydney session highs after US tsys pare early Asia-Pac weakness. With the data docket light today, the direction of the local market has been linked to US tsys dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of RBA Governor Bullock’s speech tonight at CBA’s annual conference (1900 AEDT) and Q3 CPI tomorrow.

  • In the wake of yesterday's abrupt turnaround, which pushed down US tsy yields following the 10-year's surge to a fresh cycle high above the 5% threshold, US tsys have exhibited a twist-flattening in today's Asia-Pacific session. Cash US tsys are dealing 1.5bps cheaper to 1bp richer.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-9bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps higher at -16bps.
  • Swap rates are 5-9bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps softer across ’24 meetings, with terminal rate expectations at 4.32% versus 4.36% yesterday. The market has attached a 38% chance of a 25bp hike at the RBA’s November meeting.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Q3 CPI data, with Bloomberg consensus expecting a cooling in the headline and core CPI measures. The Trimmed Mean measure is forecast to fall to 5.0% y/y from 5.9% in Q2.
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