Richer, Aided By Regional German CPI

The Monday move off of session cheaps extended in Asia-Pac hours, with the modest early richening getting further traction on the back of a slowing in the regional NRW CPI print out of Germany.

• That leaves cash Tsys 3.0-3.5bp richer across the curve.
• TYZ2 prints +0-09 at 117-12+, 0-01 off the peak of its 0-09+ range on volume of ~65K, with ~18K of residual futures roll activity aiding volume.
• A downtick in the major Hong Kong & Chinese equity indices also helped at the margin.
• E-minis have firmed to best levels in recent trade, with the 3 major contracts running 0.3-0.5% firmer on the day.
• Note that the richening move even came after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (’23 voter) told BBG that he “was actually happy to see how Chair Powell's Jackson hole speech was received” i.e. pleased that the hawkish messaging got through, via a podcast on Monday.
• Looking ahead, further German state and national CPI data will be eyed on Tuesday, particularly with the debate re: the need for a 75bp ECB hike in Sep stepping up and some arguing that the degree of hawkishness priced into EUR money markets at present is perhaps near the viable extreme. Various ECB speakers will also cross throughout the day.
• The NY docket will be headlined by JOLTS jobs data, various house price metrics and the Conference Board consumer confidence print. Elsewhere, NY Fed President Williams (permanent voter) and Richmond Fed President Barkin (’24 voter) will speak.