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Richer As CPI Cools

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 112-08, -0-00+, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 6-15bps richer across the major benchmarks, the belly lead the bid.
  • Tsys extended gains as both headline and core CPI were softer than forecast. The headline was at its lowest level since March 2021.
  • The space looked through moderately hawkish Fedspeak. Richmond Fed President Barkin noted that he is comfortable with more hikes. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said entrenched inflation could prompt the Fed to hike further. The policy blackout begins at midnight on Friday.
  • Tsys were briefly pressured as the latest 10-Year auction tailed, above-average indirect take up was observed.
  • FOMC dated OIS price a terminal rate of ~5.40% in November, there are ~80bps of cuts priced to June 2024.
  • There is a thin docket in Asia today. Further out we have June PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Fedpseak from SF Fed President Daly crosses. We also have the latest 30-Year Supply.
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