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Richer, Curve Flatter, Consumer Inflation Expectations Data Due

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +8.0) are richer after global bond yields continued to move lower led by the longer end. Short covering flows were evident as the market recoiled from multi-year yield highs reached last week.

  • A higher-than-expected PPI report appeared to weigh on the front end, with the 2-year yield finishing 1bp higher. Despite a poorly subscribed 10-year auction, the 10-year yield finished 10bps lower at 4.56%.
  • Tsy futures climbed off second-half lows as the September FOMC Minutes showed a majority expect one more hike, while some deemed further increases not warranted. However, that was before a deepening selloff in longer-run US Tsys pushed the 10-year yield to a 16-year high, a move some policymakers have since argued could be a substitute for additional rate hikes.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-8bps, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp higher at -21bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-7bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter and EFPs slightly wider.
  • The bills strip has bull flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer for meetings beyond Feb’24.
  • Today, the local calendar sees Consumer Inflation Expectations data.
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