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Richer, Mid-Range, CPI Monthly Tomorrow


ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.0) sit in the middle of the Sydney session range ahead of the closely watched CPI Monthly data tomorrow. There was no data or headlines of note today. Accordingly, local participants appear to have been guided by US tsy dealings in the Asia-Pac session.

  • US tsys are sitting near Asia-Pac session highs, with benchmark yields 1-2bp richer. The curve has steepened. There has been no news of significance so far in the session.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bp richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at -7bp.
  • Swap rates are 2bp lower, with EFPs slightly wider.
  • The bills strip has twist flattened, pivoting at late whites, with pricing -1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bp softer across meetings. A 5% chance of a 25bp hike in September is priced, with terminal rate expectations at 4.21%.
  • Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock, “Climate Change and Central Banks” is due today at 0840 BST / 1740 AEST.
  • Tomorrow the local calendar sees the CPI Monthly for July, accompanied by Construction Work Done (Q2), Building Approvals (Jul) and Private Sector Credit (Jul).
  • Tomorrow the AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.

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