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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRicher, Spillover From NZGBs Ahead Of US CPI Data, Jobs Data Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +9.0 & XM +7.5) are richer and near Sydney session highs.
- The local market saw a positive spillover from the RBNZ decision to cut its OCR by 25bps to 5.25%. Governor Orr said it was not a difficult decision as the RBNZ is now “confident” about inflation returning to target due to pricing behaviour adjusting to lower inflation and greater spare capacity. Also, a 50bp move was discussed. Future cuts will be data-dependent.
- July labour market data will print tomorrow, with Bloomberg consensus looking for a 20k increase in employment and a stable unemployment rate of 4.1%.
- We see risks to this outlook but not from the cycle but from seasonal patterns. If this occurs, then August is likely to show a rebound.
- The underemployment and youth unemployment rates plus hours worked are additional indicators monitored by the RBA monitors.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of US CPI data later today.
- Cash ACGBs are 7-9bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +8bps.
- Swap rates are 7-8bps lower.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +9.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 6-9bps softer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 23bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.