Richer, Tight Ranges, Confidence Data Fails The Move Market

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +8.5) are richer after dealing in relatively narrow ranges so far in the Sydney session.

• NAB business conditions fall 3pts to 11, with confidence unchanged at +1. Trading, Profitability and Employment sub-indices were all weaker on the month, -3, -6 and -2 respectively.
• Earlier Westpac consumer sentiment rose 2.9% m/m, with current conditions +5.4% m/m. The ‘Buy A Major Household Item’ was up 7.6%.
• TYZ3 has ticked away from session highs after the re-opening of cash US Tsys following yesterday's closure. TYZ3 deals at 107-24+, -0-02+, a touch off the base of the 0-07+ range. Cash US Tsys are 12-16bps richer across the major benchmarks, the belly continues to marginally outperform.
• Cash ACGBs are 5-9bps richer, with the 3/10 curve flatter. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -22bps.
• Swap rates are 4-7bps lower, with EFPs ~2bps wider.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +5.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps softer for ’24 meetings, with Nov’24 leading. Terminal rate expectations have softened by 3bps to 4.18% (+11bps), the lowest level since mid-September.