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Richer, US Tsys Bull-Steepen After FOMC Decision, March FOMC Cut Unlikely

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +6.0) are richer with US tsys despite FOMC pushback against a March rate cut. US tsys bull-steepened, with yields 8-13bps lower.

  • Chairman Powell was more balanced while providing his executive summary: Growth is solid to strong over the course of last year; 3.7% unemployment indicates that the labour market is strong. We have had just about two years now of unemployment under 4% -- that hasn't happened in 50 years, so it is a good labour market. And we have seen inflation come down. So, we have six months of good inflation data and expectation there is more to come. Let's be honest, this is a good economy.
  • US tsys had strengthened early after lower-than-expected ADP Employment: 107k vs. 135k est. Further support came after the Tsy Quarterly Refunding announcement and Employment Cost Index.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 4bps wider at +4bps.
  • Swap rates are 5bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +6.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps softer across meetings.
  • Judo Bank PMI Mfg for January rises to 50.1 from 47.6.
  • CoreLogic Home prices rose 0.4% m/m in January.
  • Today, the local calendar will also see Terms of Trade, NAB Business Confidence and Building Approvals data.

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