Right Wing Parties Still Look Set For Majority According To Polls

Opinion polling just over a month out from the 23 July legislative election shows the parties of the right, the conservative People's Party (PP) and the nationalist Vox, remain on course to secure an overall joint majority in the Congress of Deputies. It remains unclear whether the two would be able to come to an agreement on forming a coalition or PP-led minority gov't. If such an agreement does come to fruition it would have significant implications for Spanish economic policy as well as the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union in H223.

• Seat projection polling in June to date shows the PP winning around 135-145 seats, with Vox set for 35-45 seats. With 176 seats required for a majority in the 350-member lower house only an underperformance by both parties would deny them a win.
• An incoming PP-led gov't would likely see a shift towards a more fiscally conservative gov't programme, with party head Alberto Nunez Feijoo stating in late May that “I’m very worried about Spain’s debt...We have to attract investment and tell companies that Spain is the best place for them to invest." He criticised the windfall taxes on banks and energy firms stating that “These are policies that can win votes, but not investments,”
• At the EU level, there are sections of the Spanish presidency prepared by Sanchez's team that could remain but others removed. Politico summarises: "A Feijóo speech to the European Parliament would strike a different tone to Sánchez. “Reindustrializing Europe,” Sánchez’s top priority, might fly. “Advancing the green transition,” “consolidating the social pillar” and “strengthening the European Union” probably wouldn’t, particularly if Vox is inside the tent. But whether Feijóo would be dogmatic enough to instruct his diplomats to change course, risking a failed Council presidency, is another matter entirely."

Source: 40dB, GESOP, Sigmados, Data 10, Electopanel, Targetpoint, Sociometrica, NC Report, GAD3, MNI