Right-Wing Reform UK Could Further Dent Conservative Re-Election Chances

The right-wing eurosceptic Reform UK could significantly dent the incumbent centre-right Conservatives already-slim prospects of retaining power in the next general election, which is seen as likely to take place this year. Earlier today, Reform UK leader Richard Tice held an event looking to set out his party's stances at the start of the year. Although Reform UK does not hold any seats in the House of Commons, opinion polling in late-2023 showed the party's support rising from ~5-6% to ~9-10%, enough to significantly impact vote shares of other political parties come an election.

• Reform UK emerged in Jan 2021 from the Brexit Party, which was founded in 2018 by former UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage to exert pressure on the gov't of then-PM Theresa May to pursue a 'hard Brexit'.
• In the 2019 general election, the Brexit Party did not contest the seats held by Conservative MPs. However, this morning Tice stated that “We are not doing any [election] deals with the Tories", claiming that his party will contest every seat in England, Scotland, and Wales.
• With the Budget approaching on 6 March there is significant focus on whether the gov't will look to deliver tax cuts in an effort to win back wavering voters on a fiscally conservative electoral platform. However, Reform UK standing in every seat could raise the prospect of PM Rishi Sunak's party doubling-down on an anti-illegal immigration, socially conservative stance to ward off Reform UK's attacks.