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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SPAIN
The regional election held in the large, rural autonomous communite of Castile and Leon on 13 February delivered strong results for the right-wing nationalist VOX party. VOX now becomes the third-largest in the Cortes (regional parliament) and is well-positioned to prop-up a minority centre-right People's Party (PP) gov't.
- The election has ramifications beyond the borders of Castile and Leon. The strong performance of VOX shows there is little signal of a slowdown in the party's growing position as the default recepticle of political protest votes.
- The election was also called at the behest of the PP and was viewed as an attempt by party head Pablo Casado to win an outright majority and bolster his position as head of the party at the federal level. Having fallen short, and potentially being forced into a confidence-and-supply agreement with VOX, pressure on Casado from potential leadership challengers will remain strong.
- The increasing normalisation of VOX supporting the PP in regional gov'ts (already in place in Andalusia and Murcia) could see the prospect of a similar arrangement at the federal level hone into view, especially given the decline in support for the PP recorded in recent polls. A PP-VOX arrangement at the national level could spark a major uptick in political unrest, notably in autonomous communities with significant breakaway movements such as Catalonia and the Basque Country.
Chart 1. Castile and Leon Election Result, Seats
Source: Junta of Castile and León, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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