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RIKSBANK: Estimates Neutral Between 1.5-3.0% - Seim

RIKSBANK
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Riksbank Governor Seim’s speech on the neutral interest rate here:  A few highlights from the summary:

  • “The long-term neutral interest rate, and thus the long-term normal policy rate, is probably between 1.5 and 3 per cent. This is one percentage point lower than the range the Riksbank published in 2017”.
  • “The range reflects the uncertainty that the Riksbank considers to exist in estimates of the neutral interest rate in the long term”.
  • “The neutral interest rate is thus assumed to remain at historically low levels. This means, for instance, that one cannot rule out the possibility that the policy rate may periodically need to be lowered to levels around zero”.

 The Riksbank’s September MPR path troughs at 2.25% i.e. the mid-point of the 1.5-3% range cited by Seim here. 

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Riksbank Governor Seim’s speech on the neutral interest rate here:  A few highlights from the summary:

  • “The long-term neutral interest rate, and thus the long-term normal policy rate, is probably between 1.5 and 3 per cent. This is one percentage point lower than the range the Riksbank published in 2017”.
  • “The range reflects the uncertainty that the Riksbank considers to exist in estimates of the neutral interest rate in the long term”.
  • “The neutral interest rate is thus assumed to remain at historically low levels. This means, for instance, that one cannot rule out the possibility that the policy rate may periodically need to be lowered to levels around zero”.

 The Riksbank’s September MPR path troughs at 2.25% i.e. the mid-point of the 1.5-3% range cited by Seim here. 

Keep reading...Show less