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Riksbank Review: November 2020 - A Larger Than Expected Expansion

  • Yesterday the Riksbank announced a SEK200bln extension to QE. We had expected an increase to QE but the market had been split. In the SEB survey, 45% expected more QE to be announced this week while only 7/12 sell-side notes we read ahead of the meeting had expected an extension to QE at this meeting.
  • The Riksbank surprised the market further by announcing an even larger QE programme than most who expected a QE extension looked for and front-loading purchases – bringing Q1-21 asset purchases back in line with those seen in the height of the first wave of Q2-20 and Q3-20.
  • We thought that there would be three main reasons the Riksbank would act. First, concerns about growth and permanent scarring to the economy, second concerns about potential currency appreciation (in particular triggered by a potentially very dovish ECB meeting in December) and third wider concerns about maintaining the credibility of the inflation target. The Riksbank referred to all of these in its press release and MPR.
For the full document see below:

MNI Riksbank Review - Nov 2020.pdf

Central Bank ReviewHomepageRiksbank - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Central Bank ReviewHomepageRiksbank - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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