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Riksbank Survey: Slower Activity, But Declining Price Pressures

SWEDEN

The Riksbank's business survey for Q3 showed respondents indicating "economic activity is expected to continue to slow down and the weak economic situation is expected to persist over the next six months".

  • The weak krona has allowed exporters to benefit, but "more industrial sectors are now beginning to notice a slowdown in economic activity", albeit moderate. The Riksbank notes that few imports/exporters are changing their currency risk management (unlike the Riksbank, who are hedging their FX risk).
  • Businesses note that "household expectations are central to the recovery", which is slightly worrying given the low consumer confidence seen in past months. The release states that "companies that sell directly to households are still experiencing very weak demand" - the negative Y/Y retail sales seen since May 2022 display this.
  • There is evidence of price pressures waning thanks to "stiffer competition", slightly contradictory to yesterday's tendency survey which saw business price plans remain elevated. Additionally, respondents saw evidence of labour market loosening with "fewer shortages, even of specialists".

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