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Ringgit Shows Resilience Despite General Aversion To Risk

MYR

Spot USD/MYR trades -25 pips at MYR4.4030, holding yesterday's range, in defiance of broader defensive feel. Should bearish pressure build enough to result in a break under Jun 17 low of MYR4.3945, downside focus would shift to May 31 low of MYR4.3643. Bulls keep an eye on Jun 14 high of MYR4.4255, a recent cycle high. If we see the rate moving above there, Mar 23, 2020 high of MYR4.4490 could soon come under attack.

  • PM Ismail Sabri unveiled plans to extend direct aid to low-income households ("B40") in a bid to cushion the blow from cost-push inflation. The price tag for latest round of cash handouts that will be disbursed from Monday is MYR630mn. The government will also keep the subsidy for cooking oil in plastic packets.
  • Palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (as viewed on continuation chart) have now erased their YtD gains, with the removal of an export ban by top producer Indonesia facilitating the downswing in prices. Broader weakness in commodity markets, fuelled by lingering recession fears, has also played a role.
  • The key remaining data release this week is May CPI report, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to have quickened to +2.7% Y/Y from +2.3% recorded in April.
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Spot USD/MYR trades -25 pips at MYR4.4030, holding yesterday's range, in defiance of broader defensive feel. Should bearish pressure build enough to result in a break under Jun 17 low of MYR4.3945, downside focus would shift to May 31 low of MYR4.3643. Bulls keep an eye on Jun 14 high of MYR4.4255, a recent cycle high. If we see the rate moving above there, Mar 23, 2020 high of MYR4.4490 could soon come under attack.

  • PM Ismail Sabri unveiled plans to extend direct aid to low-income households ("B40") in a bid to cushion the blow from cost-push inflation. The price tag for latest round of cash handouts that will be disbursed from Monday is MYR630mn. The government will also keep the subsidy for cooking oil in plastic packets.
  • Palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (as viewed on continuation chart) have now erased their YtD gains, with the removal of an export ban by top producer Indonesia facilitating the downswing in prices. Broader weakness in commodity markets, fuelled by lingering recession fears, has also played a role.
  • The key remaining data release this week is May CPI report, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to have quickened to +2.7% Y/Y from +2.3% recorded in April.