Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
Should the FDPpull out of the gov't,the only options to form a majority coalition would be two unlikely prospects: a 'grand coalition' involving the SPD and the main opposition centre-right Union (CDU/CSU), or a 'Jamaica' coalition involving the CDU, Greens, and FDP.
- As such, snap elections would likely be forced should the FDP withdraw. Opinion polling signals that a federal election now would risk a wipeout of the party in the Bundestag. The FDP's average support in October fell to 5.6%, just above the 5% threshold required to win seats.
- The rise of the centre-right liberal Free Voters (FW) at the national level could pose a threat to the FDP. While the FW is only polling around 3% (the party has historically been focused on state-level politics, primarily in Bavaria), they could draw enough support away from the FDP to take them below the electoral threshold in any snap election.
- Surprisingly, the establishment of the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) could also hit the FDP according to polls. While the two parties would seemingly stand at opposite ends of the political spectrum (BSW economically left, socially conservative; FDP economically right, socially liberal), a poll from Civeyfound that 26% of FDP voters would be interested in the offshoot BSW founded by former Die Linke MP Sara Wagenknecht.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, Forsa, Allensbach, FGW, Infratest dimap, Kantar, Ipsos, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok