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Key Support Remains Exposed

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Rising Bonds Lifts All Durations

US TSYS

Focus on bull curve flattening as 2s10s falls to new all-time inverted low of -67.982 with Bonds extending session highs in late trade (30YY 3.8369% low), short end lagging after stronger Retail Sales (+1.3% vs. 1.0% est, ex-auto +1.3% vs. 0.5% est).

  • Stronger revisions to prior, and a robust +0.7% M/M control group number (which is what feeds into the GDP calculations).The 1.3% overall gains included positive M/M readings in most categories.
  • Short end came under heavy pressure for much of the session, tempering yr-end "step-down" pricing. Back on track in late trade: Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 down to 49.3bs from 49.8bp, Feb'23 cumulative 83.6bp vs. 85.3bp, to 4.686%, terminal 4.905% in Jun'23 (5.08% pre-CPI).
  • Tsy futures gapped higher after strong $15B 20Y bond auction (912810TM0) trades through: 4.072% high yield vs. 4.102% WI; 2.64x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.5x.
  • Indirect take-up climbs to 75.35% vs. 63.70% prior month; direct bidder take-up 15.40% vs. 19.86% prior; primary dealer take-up 9.25% vs. 16.43%.
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Focus on bull curve flattening as 2s10s falls to new all-time inverted low of -67.982 with Bonds extending session highs in late trade (30YY 3.8369% low), short end lagging after stronger Retail Sales (+1.3% vs. 1.0% est, ex-auto +1.3% vs. 0.5% est).

  • Stronger revisions to prior, and a robust +0.7% M/M control group number (which is what feeds into the GDP calculations).The 1.3% overall gains included positive M/M readings in most categories.
  • Short end came under heavy pressure for much of the session, tempering yr-end "step-down" pricing. Back on track in late trade: Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 down to 49.3bs from 49.8bp, Feb'23 cumulative 83.6bp vs. 85.3bp, to 4.686%, terminal 4.905% in Jun'23 (5.08% pre-CPI).
  • Tsy futures gapped higher after strong $15B 20Y bond auction (912810TM0) trades through: 4.072% high yield vs. 4.102% WI; 2.64x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.5x.
  • Indirect take-up climbs to 75.35% vs. 63.70% prior month; direct bidder take-up 15.40% vs. 19.86% prior; primary dealer take-up 9.25% vs. 16.43%.