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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRising Covid Uncertainty Puts CNB Policymakers In A Difficult Position
- Market prepares for CNB meeting next week (Nov 4), with policymakers likely to debate whether the central bank should hike by 50bps or 75bps.
- The CNB surprised the market at its last meeting (Sep 30) by raising the policy rate by 75bps (vs. 50bps exp.) to 1.5% to curb the rising inflationary pressures.
- As inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated until at least the end of this year, participants continue to price in aggressive hikes in the coming meetings.
- Forward rates are currently pricing in another 100bps by year-end (base scenario: 75bps hike next meeting, followed by 25bps hike in December), which would lift the policy rate up to 2.5%, highest level since November 2008.
- At the same time, Czech government has also reintroduced Covid restrictions amid rising cases, which could lead to a significant downward revision in growth expectations.
- We have seen that consumer and business sentiment indicators have been falling for month, currently standing at their lowest level since April 2021.
- First estimate of Q3 GDP will come out on Friday (Oct 29), expected to decelerate to 3.2% YoY (from 8.1% the previous quarter).
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.