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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA
House prices began to rise again in March after 10 consecutive monthly declines and are now 3% above the February trough but the rise is going to put additional pressure on already stretched housing affordability. It appears that buying a home is going to get more difficult over the months ahead, thus increasing demand for rentals at a time when dwelling approvals are their lowest level since 2012. The RBA has also noted that rising house prices could support consumer demand.
- If the tightening of monetary policy seen since May 2022 is excluded and we just look at the house price to disposable income ratio (assuming Q2 disposable income will rise in line with Q2 2022 and the April/May average of house prices), then affordability has improved because of the correction in house prices. Our estimate of the ratio is 1.6% below trend in Q2 but is up from -3.4% in Q1 because of rising prices.
- Our Q2 estimate of the housing affordability index, which includes mortgage rates, is 35.4% below trend, which is a further deterioration from Q1’s -30.5% driven by higher rates and house prices. Given the 2.7% y/y rise in population over 15yrs in May and the significant housing shortage, prices are likely to continue to rise putting further downward pressure on house prices.
Australia housing affordability index
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
*Q2 = average (Apr/May) CoreLogic house prices/rates, income rises by same as Q2:22
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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