Risk Of Weekend Govt Shutdown Ticks Up

Punchbowl News reporting that Congressional leadership, "does not expect to release the text of the [FY2024] funding deal today," after failing to resolve dispute over funding the Department of Homeland Security.

• MNI's Political Risk team noted in this morning's edition of the US Daily Brief that today is likely the deadline for the deal to be unveiled to allow sufficient time for Congress to clear a FY2024 package and avert a government shutdown at midnight on Friday, assuming that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) complies with a self-imposed House Republican rule to provide lawmakers 72-hours to consider legislation before holding a vote.
• If the final deal is released tomorrow, the House could hold a vote on Friday. Theoretically, the Senate could then fast-track the bill through the chamber with the unanimous consent of all 100 senators. However, this would depend on support from hardline fiscal conservatives, like Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), who slowed down passage of the first FY2024 six-bill minibus earlier this month.
• If the House completes work on the package this week, we expect the Senate to remain in session over the weekend to overcome opposition and keep any potential government shutdown short and economic impact negligible.