Free Trial

Risk-Off Drags Oil Markets, RUB Into the Red; Geopolitical Risks in Focus

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.10% higher this morning, paring some of the oil-induced gap higher this morning as risk sentiment sours on Omicron risks.
  • Brent is off -3.15% this morning as concerns over excess supply and USD strength on risk-off drag oil markets into the red and closer to the $70 handle.
  • Geopolitcal risks overshadowed Friday’s +100bp CBR hike which was mostly priced in as frictions around Russia’s security guarantees with NATO emerged soon after the CBR decision.
  • Risk premia rose substantially last week, but the narrative remains broadly the same with Russia no nearer to triggering sanctions for invading Ukraine – but moving towards a new phase of protracted negotiation over onerous guarantees that NATO is unlikely to accept in their current form.
  • This week, geopolitical tensions alongside PPI, weekly CPI, industrial production, and broad risk sentiment will be the key drivers of price action.
  • The 200dma remained intact last week, forming a range between 73.25-75.20 – where we may see the cross fluctuate within in the near-term.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.925, Sup2: 73.7629, Res1: 74.5023, Res2: 74.7558
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.