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Risk-Off Drags Oil Markets, RUB Into the Red; Geopolitical Risks in Focus

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.10% higher this morning, paring some of the oil-induced gap higher this morning as risk sentiment sours on Omicron risks.
  • Brent is off -3.15% this morning as concerns over excess supply and USD strength on risk-off drag oil markets into the red and closer to the $70 handle.
  • Geopolitcal risks overshadowed Friday’s +100bp CBR hike which was mostly priced in as frictions around Russia’s security guarantees with NATO emerged soon after the CBR decision.
  • Risk premia rose substantially last week, but the narrative remains broadly the same with Russia no nearer to triggering sanctions for invading Ukraine – but moving towards a new phase of protracted negotiation over onerous guarantees that NATO is unlikely to accept in their current form.
  • This week, geopolitical tensions alongside PPI, weekly CPI, industrial production, and broad risk sentiment will be the key drivers of price action.
  • The 200dma remained intact last week, forming a range between 73.25-75.20 – where we may see the cross fluctuate within in the near-term.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.925, Sup2: 73.7629, Res1: 74.5023, Res2: 74.7558
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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