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Risk Off Helps Push 3M-10Y Spread Briefly Into Inversion

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are largely holding onto an overnight bid amidst broad risk-off sentiment with close attention on whether a US plane indeed heading to Taiwan and whether or not House Speaker Pelosi is on board.
  • The moves see front-end yields trade closer to lows after weak Q2 GDP last week whilst the long-end continues to trade below following yesterday’s sizeable rally, in turn cranking 2s10s lower still to -30bps (-1bp on the day) and the 3M to 10Y spread at 4.5bp but off overnight lows of -0.6bps having briefly turned inverted for the first time since Mar’20.
  • 2YY -1.6bps at 2.854%, 5YY -2.2bps at 2.612%, 10YY -2.5bps at 2.548%, 30YY -3.9bps at 2.876%.
  • TYU2 trades 13 ticks higher at 121-25, through yesterday’s range but off a session high of 122-02 having touched the highest since Apr 5.
  • Data: JOLTS for June at 1000ET
  • Fedspeak: Daly (’24 voter) on CNBC at 0945ET, Evans (’23 but retiring early in the year) at 1000ET, Mester (’22) at 1300ET and Bullard (’22) at 1845ET
  • No issuance.

US Tsy yields - showing last price vs ask price in textSource: Bloomberg

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