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Risk-On

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE

General risk-on tone Monday, trading desks citing decent Eurozone PMI numbers and bid for US$ in early trade, dollar support waned in second half. Late bounce off lows after US Tsy expects to borrow $947B during Q3 2020, reflecting relief payouts and lower tax revenue amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

  • Tsy futures extended overnight lows ahead NY open -- minutes prior to word of Alphabet intention to issue $10B 6-part debt (not to mention AstraZeneca and Fannie Mae), fast$, prop acct sold ahead rate locks.
  • Underscoring pressure in rates: ISM Mfg PMI showed the third successive increase in Jul, rising by 1.6pt to 54.2, highest level since Mar 2019 and beating expectations (BBG: 53.6).
  • Quite a bit early before Dec takes Sep as lead quarterly Tsy future, but roll already getting underway.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.1093%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 0.2153%, 10-Yr is up 2.1bps at 0.5494%, and 30-Yr is up 3.7bps at 1.2299%.

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