RISK: ### POV, POLLING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF...>

RISK: ### POV, POLLING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF US GOV SHUTDOWN 2.0

- Desk asking if any probability estimates attached to the US Gov shutting down

again if border funding can not be met by Friday's deadline. So far there has

been a dearth of dealer opinions. So turning to source list for their estimates:

- Of just over a dozen responses, the range was 60% to 90% with an average of

71.75% for a likely shutdown to occur Friday. That was until two outliers came

up with 0-10% chance, under the premise Pres Trump "doesn't want another

shutdown fiasco".

- Still awaiting responses for follow up question: what are the chances Trump

goes the route of calling a National Emergency in order to get funding?

- There should be good hangtime for this question to bring in more responses --

widely expected any announcement will likely be drawn out to as late as possible

Friday.