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Robust Trade Surplus Fails To Shield Ringgit, Inflation Report & GE15 Date Eyed


Spot USD/MYR remains on a clear uptrend despite Wednesday's record-breaking trade surplus and an uptick in palm oil prices. The pair last operates at MYR4.7245, 40 pips better off, supported by overnight risk aversion. Eyes are on domestic risk events, with CPI data & GE15 update coming up.

  • From a technical standpoint, the topside line in the sand is provided by the all-time high of MYR4.8850. Bears look for a retreat past Oct 6 low of MYR4.6385.
  • Palm oil futures registered gains Wednesday and stayed afloat in after-hours trade. Prices were boosted by concerns that adverse weather conditions in top two growers Indonesia and Malaysia could weigh on the supply of the tropical oil in the near-term. Futures were firmer despite a steady decline in the aggregate BBG Commodity Index.
  • Malaysia's trade surplus soared to MYR31.71bn in September, printing comfortably above consensus forecast (MYR17.4bn) and easily beating even the most optimistic estimates. Manufacturing and mining exports helped push overall monthly surplus to a record, amid a larger than expected slowdown in annual imports growth.
  • Focus now turns to Malaysia's consumer inflation, with a moderation to +4.6% Y/Y expected for the September outturn after August's +4.7% print.
  • Separately, the Election Commission will announce the date for the 15th general election (GE15).

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