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[RPT] MNI Payrolls Preview: Market Eager For Feb FOMC Clues

US
  • Released 0830ET, consensus looks for a slight moderation in payrolls growth in December after last month’s release moved clearly in the wrong direction for Powell and the FOMC.
  • However, it’s expected to show another month well above a more sustainable 100k with the u/e rate holding at 3.7% (slight survey skew lower) and AHE growth of 0.4% M/M (slight skew softer).
  • Revisions to last month’s payrolls and new seasonal factors for household survey figures are also in focus along with the usual combination of unemployment and participation rates plus AHE growth to judge slack.
  • The market is torn between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the Feb 1 FOMC. Market sensitivity can see large reaction to surprises in either direction but is perhaps skewed more to a relief rally if a downside surprise after the latest rise in Fed terminal pricing and string of strong labour indicators. CPI follows Jan 12.
  • FULL NOTE: https://marketnews.com/mni-us-payrolls-preview-market-eager-for-feb-fomc-clues
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