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RUB Gains as Tentative Pathways for De-Escalation Emerge, Focus on Russia for Next Steps

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -1.16% lower this morning following US/NATO responses to Russia’s written proposals.
  • Although both didn’t cave to the key components of Russia’s proposals (non-expansion & Ukraine accession), they offered pathways for de-escalation in missile inspections and military drills to bring Russia back to the negotiating table.
  • How Russia interprets this and responds will determine the next steps in the crisis, but plans for troops to leave Belarus post-drills may be early signs of a softening in Putin’s stance.
  • Until now, Putin has received no concessions and this could open the way for a de-escalation should he choose to come back to negotiations and find a way to spin it as a domestic victory.
  • Nevertheless, uncertainty is still extremely high, and focus will be on responses from the Kremlin and the Lavrov-Blinken meeting in the coming days.
  • The Fed meeting also came out more hawkish than expected as Powell signalled a March Hike and plans to significantly reduce the balance sheet – sparking broad-based risk-off.
  • UST yields spikes and equities reversed sharply, contributing to notably weaker global risk sentiment today.
  • USD/RUB should be vulnerable to headline risks today with a focus on Russia’s next steps in talks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 78.3048, Sup2: 77.4994, Sup3: 76.7888, Res1: 79.4922, Res2: 80.19, Res3: 80.49
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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