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RUB Gains Provide More Space for Future CBR Rate Cuts

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN trades +0.05% higher this morning, treading water above the 64.00 handle despite the firmer start for Brent (+1.83%), Natgas (+13.50%) and the APAC region.
  • The cross resumed its push lower yesterday broadly against the tide of a firmer USD – probing 64 support.
  • Today’s focus will be on domestic CPI this afternoon with RUB strength dampening passthrough pressures to CPI – resulting in a notable slowdown in the pace of inflation from 7.61% m/m to 1.70% m/m.
  • Continued RUB strength and softer inflation prints will provide the CBR more room to cut rates from the emergency hike and reduce capital controls on forex transactions over time. A move through 64.00 opens up the swing low at 62.3062.
  • On the geopolitical front, the war in Ukraine rages on with no sign of cessation. The humanitarian contact group is allegedly meeting in the coming days, but is unlikely to deliver any de-escalation with Putin bedding down for a protracted campaign in the Donbas.
  • Threats to Finland and Sweden over NATO accession continue, but security experts see a low likelihood of any near-term military threat to their security.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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