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RUB Under Pressure as War Risk Premia See a Material Rebuild in Global Markets

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.42% this morning, pulling back slightly below 77.00 after a breakdown in relations saw sentiment shift and markets take profit on RUB positions on Friday.
  • Tensions are back to prior highs with the West reiterating concerns over an immanent attack in the coming week while Russian troops are deployed in Belarus and conducting drills. Weekend talks with Macron and Biden showed little progress, although Macron continued to downplay the risk of war.
  • RUB may come under pressure this week with spot still 4.5% below the prior highs and will likely be responsive to ad-hoc developments on the ground.
  • We’re still awaiting Putin’s response to the West to see if Russia will continue negotiations, but early indications suggest both sides remain far apart on key issues and this may not create avenues to de-escalation just yet.
  • Putin’s promise to pull the troops back from Belarus on Feb 20 is a key pivot point for the crisis as a refusal to do so would represent a notable escalation, while keeping his word could open the door to more positive dialogue.
  • Geopolitical tensions outweighed a notably hawkish CBR meeting on Friday where Nabiullina guided towards another potential hike (perhaps ~50-100bp) to counter overheating risks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.2144, Sup2: 76.015, Res1: 77.4944, Res2: 78.3048, Res3: 78.99
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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