Runoff Expected In LDP Leadership Race

The deadline for rank-and-file party members to cast their votes in the LDP leadership election has expired and ballot counting process begins, with the winner virtually certain to become Japan's next Prime Minister. LDP parliamentarians will begin voting at 13:00 JST.

• In the first round, each of the LDP's 382 lawmakers (both from the upper and lower house of the National Diet) will be able to pick their candidate, while further 382 votes will be distributed among candidates proportionately, based on ballots cast by over 1.1mn rank-and-file members. Whoever wins an outright majority, will become the next LDP leader.
• Should Japan's ruling party fail to elect its new president in the first attempt, the top two candidates will proceed to the second round. The voting method used in the runoff shifts power to party heavyweights, with all 382 lawmakers and 47 prefectural party chapters entitled to vote.
• The race should be concluded this afternoon and the winner will be formally appointed Japan's Prime Minister at the special parliamentary session on October 4.
• Most watchers expect Taro Kono and Fumio Kishida to dominate the four-way contest, as neither Sanae Takaichi nor Seiko Noda managed to substantially broaden their support base. That being said, none of the candidates seems to have enough support to win in the first round, which means we may expect a runoff.
• Taro Kono remains the most popular candidate among the wider public. According to a poll circulated by Kyodo last weekend, he is also the top pick of rank-and-file LDP members. However, the latest survey of LDP lawmakers published by Yomiuri suggests that Fumio Kishida may garner 133 votes from Diet members, with Kono poised to be backed by just 103 lawmakers.
• Sankei published a source report this morning noting that Kishida and Takaichi struck a deal last night to cooperate if any of them faces Kono in the second round. Unnamed officials from both camps revealed that the two candidates are planning to emphasise their shared commitment to the "stability of administration" and use it to attack Kono's policy proposals.