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Rupiah Finds Poise Amid Greenback Weakness, MYR/IDR Struggles To Breach 100-DMA

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has shed 24 figs so far as broader greenback sales have resumed. The rate last deals at IDR14,809, moving away from a cycle high printed on Jun 20 at IDR14,843. Further losses past May 19 high of IDR14,738 would shift focus to the 50-DMA, which intersects at IDR14,518. Conversely, a clearance of IDR14,843 would open up Sep 29, 2020/Sep 11, 2020 highs of IDR14,918/14,950.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -28 figs at IDR14,825. Bears look for a deeper sell-off towards May 16 high of IDR14,772, while bulls keep an eye on Jun 16 high of IDR14,891.
  • Failure to breach the 100-DMA during the recent upswing in MYR/IDR turns focus to further signs of buyer exhaustion. The rate completed a double bottom formation last week and a move through that moving average (IDR3,362) is needed to reinforce bullish expectations. Bears look for a pullback under the neckline/May 20 high at IDR3,349. The pair last deals at IDR3,363, ~9 figs lower on the day.
  • Note that Indonesian government spokesman Adisasmito will provide an update on the local COVID-19 situation this afternoon.
  • Participants look ahead to the monetary policy decision from Bank Indonesia, coming up this Thursday, with some calling for the inauguration of a tightening cycle.

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