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Rupiah Gains Amid Risk-On Flows Inspired By U.S. CPI

IDR

Spot USD/IDR dropped to its lowest point since late June as the rupiah's traditional risk-sensitivity helps it become the second best performer in the Asia EM basket (trailing only another risk proxy KRW). Local players reacted to overnight greenback sales driven by below-forecast U.S. CPI data. The pair last changes hands -59 figs at IDR14,814, with bears looking for a deeper retreat under Jun 21 low of IDR14,784. Conversely, bulls need a bounce above Aug 4 high of IDR14,939 for some initial reassurance.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +27 figs at IDR14,814. Topside focus falls on Aug 5 high of IDR14,990, while bears keep an eye on the 100-DMA, which kicks in at IDR14,688.
  • Palm oil futures have extended gains this morning. The contract for October delivery has added MYR101/MT and last trades at MYR4,214/MT.
  • Indonesia's palm oil inventories fell to 6.68mn tons in June from 7.23mn in May as exports soared +244% M/M after the ban on shipments was lifted in late May.
  • FinMin Indrawati will hold a briefing on the state budget this afternoon. Separately, comments are expected from Economic Affairs Min Hartarto and Industry Min Kartasasmita.
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