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Rupiah Goes Offered Despite Resilience Of Some Key Commodities

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has crept higher amidst risk-off backdrop and last trades +39 figs at IDR14,877. A break above the nearby 50-DMA (IDR14,889) would bring Aug 4 high of IDR14,939 into view. Bears look for a dive under the 100-DMA at IDR14,675.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -14 figs at IDR14,909. Bears look for losses towards Aug 12 low of IDR14,654, while bulls keep an eye on Aug 5 high of IDR14,990.
  • Jakarta Composite Index has faltered after last week's failure to take out resistance from Jun 9 high (7,258). It last sits ~1.3% lower on the day.
  • Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium has widened to levels last seen two weeks ago before stepping back to last sit at ~112bp.
  • Palm oil futures trade above neutral levels despite a downtick in the aggregate BBG Commodity Index this morning. The contract for November delivery changes hands at MYR4,213/MT, up MYR118/MT on the day. Base metals are also holding up well.
  • Investment Min Panjaian said President Widodo will announce his decision on raising the price of subsidised fuel, which may happen this week.
  • Bank Indonesia will deliver its monetary policy decision tomorrow. Most analysts expect the central bank to stand pat on interest rates.
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